000
ABNT20 KNHC 290533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AN SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROUGH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI TODAY AND MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY TUESDAY.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART