000
ABNT20 KNHC 281740
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 900 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  IN ADDITION...SATELLITE-
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED.  A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FROM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN