000
ABNT20 KNHC 280500
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE.  HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
LOW.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG