000
ABNT20 KNHC 280251
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS PRODUCING
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE.  HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG