000
ABNT20 KNHC 271742
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW.  WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO
20 MPH.  AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN