000
ABNT20 KNHC 211128
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS 
BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD
FRONT IN ABOUT A DAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA