000
ABNT20 KNHC 210521
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SINCE THE LOW IS BECOMING LESS
DEFINED AND PRODUCING ONLY MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES
WITH A COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN