000
ABNT20 KNHC 202339
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOCATED
ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL AND THE LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES
WITH A COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN