000
ABNT20 KNHC 201730
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO...IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED...AND THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...COULD STILL FAVOR SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MISSION SCHEDULED
FOR TODAY WAS CANCELLED.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...SOME 
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA