000
ABNT20 KNHC 201130
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO...IS LIMITED.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA