000
ABNT20 KNHC 200522
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO IS PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ACQUIRE SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN