000
ABNT20 KNHC 192331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE
REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...THIS LOW STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH....AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. 

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ACQUIRE SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE