000
ABNT20 KNHC 191727
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
DIMINISHED SOME TODAY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA