000
ABNT20 KNHC 190533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LOW COULD STILL ACQUIRE
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG