000
ABNT20 KNHC 182332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY...
AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS LOW TOMORROW.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE