000
ABNT20 KNHC 181736
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE 
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN