000
ABNT20 KNHC 181134
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE 
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN