000
ABNT20 KNHC 180532
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG