000
ABNT20 KNHC 171729
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
LOW IN THIS AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS LOW HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA