000
ABNT20 KNHC 171130
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...AND IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 
THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN
THE WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT
TIME.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA