000
ABNT20 KNHC 170533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TONIGHT.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG