000
ABNT20 KNHC 162334
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID...LOCATED INLAND WEST OF LA
PESCA MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLAND.

SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHERE IS HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART