000
ABNT20 KNHC 152311
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART