000
ABNT20 KNHC 121730
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
LIMITED.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.    

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA