000
ABNT20 KNHC 121130
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY. 

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
LIMITED.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.    

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA