000
ABNT20 KNHC 120541
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GABRIELLE...LOCATED ALMOST A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG AS IT REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.    

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN