000
ABNT20 KNHC 112316
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IF IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FAR ENOUGH
FROM LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR  HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.     

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA