000
ABNT20 KNHC 111735
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED JUST TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOMORROW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOWS SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FAR ENOUGH FROM LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AT TIME. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.     

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA