000
ABNT20 KNHC 102319
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
GABRIELLE...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND
ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES OVER LAND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.  FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT2.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA