000
ABNT20 KNHC 101734
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
GABRIELLE...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND
WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND ENTER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THURSDAY.  SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES OVER LAND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.  FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT2.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG