000
ABNT20 KNHC 092324
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS...
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FORM OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW
DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN