000
ABNT20 KNHC 081139
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED IF A DEPRESSION FORMS.  REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG