000
ABNT20 KNHC 080531
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART