000
ABNT20 KNHC 071746
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...CENTERED
ROUGHLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.  DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE