000
ABNT20 KNHC 062333
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED INLAND WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THIS
SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. 

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN