000
ABNT20 KNHC 061529
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE A TROPICAL
CYCLONE CAN FORM...IT IS LIKELY TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A
FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

A COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...WHICH INCLUDES THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...EXTENDS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER... DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN