000
ABNT20 KNHC 060528
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WHICH DISSIPATED NEAR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOCATED A
LITTLE LESS THAN A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF TAMPICO IS MOVING
WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY APPROACHING LAND...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE
THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT 
ATLANTIC. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBACE...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND INTERACTS
WITH REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA