000
ABNT20 KNHC 052328
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 

DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. 

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE OR ITS REMNANTS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE
TO DRY AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
VERY UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN