000
ABNT20 KNHC 051749
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY 
AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE