000
ABNT20 KNHC 050535
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. 
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO
ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. 

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2...AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN