000
ABNT20 KNHC 040502
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD
OVER PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH