000
ABNT20 KNHC 032332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH