000
ABNT20 KNHC 031803
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN