000
ABNT20 KNHC 031135
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART