000
ABNT20 KNHC 021134
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART