000
ABNT20 KNHC 012331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE
DECREASED THIS EVENING...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER ELONGATED.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.  REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH