000
ABNT20 KNHC 011748
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART