000
ABNT20 KNHC 011139
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF
MARTINIQUE...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR DATA
FROM MARTINIQUE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND NEARBY
SHIPS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SOME OF THE
STRONG SQUALLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
ESPECIALLY THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
DECREASE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART