000
ABNT20 KNHC 311130
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LESS CONDUCIVE
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO BEFORE IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHERE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA