000
ABNT20 KNHC 300501
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AS THE WAVE NEARS THAT AREA LATE SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO A
REGION WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE